If Bitcoin Breaks Below $7,500, a 10% Drop Would Be in Play
After days of inaction, Bitcoin (BTC) bears have finally shown their hand. In the past 24 hours, the leading cryptocurrency has lost around 3%, falling from a multi-day high of around $7,950 to $7,650 as of the time of writing this.
With this move, which many believe will set the trend for the cryptocurrency market, analysts have kept their eye on the charts, trying to determine in what direction Bitcoin will head next.
Bitcoin in Crucial Area, Keep Your Head Up
According to analyst Financial Survivalism, Bitcoin is currently in a “crucial area of support” in the $7,600 region. This is because, at current levels, BTC is testing a horizontal block of support at $7,600 and is flirting with the 200 four-hour exponential moving average, a key short-term trend line.
This is the second time that this pattern has played out in the past week, meaning that a retest will likely set the tone for cryptocurrencies for the coming week.
#Bitcoin is testing a crucial area of support from the 200 EMA (4h) & previous horizontal. If we continue to close above $7,615 then we should eventually breakthrough the top of the channel & continue the bull trend. If we break down $7,500 then I’ll be setting bids at $6,800. pic.twitter.com/sbNiZZ70qZ
— Financial Survivalism (@Sawcruhteez) June 9, 2019
Survivalism explains that if BTC manages to close its four-hour and daily candle above $7,615, he would be inclined to suggest that Bitcoin will continue a bull trend, as it would have broken above a descending bear channel.
If BTC closes under $7,500, however, Survivalism believes that $6,800 will be in play just over 10% lower than current prices. At $6,800 lies a horizontal block of resistance, and an uptrend line that Bitcoin touched three times in late-March and April’s surge higher.
While optimists are hoping that Bitcoin will continue higher from here, most are expecting for a move lower.
Per previous reports from NewsBTC, legendary Bitcoin investor Trace Mayer noted that the Mayer Multiple (BTC over its 200-day moving average) is showing that the market is still “slightly frothy”. More specifically, the multiple is reading a 1.82, the highest this indicator has been since early-2018.
With this in mind, the American investor, an anti-establishment figure that is an angel/early-stage investor in Kraken and Armory, added that he expects for the multiple to undergo a “gentle retreat” to anywhere from 1.4 to 1.6, which would result in prices of anywhere from $6,500 to $7,500.
Responding to the observation about the Mayer Multiple, Tuur Demeester, a partner at Adamant Capital that called the bottom of (this and) the last cycle, noted that his team is “cautious”. Citing a seminal report that Adamant released prior to Bitcoin’s rally past $4,000, $6,000, and $8,000 in rapid succession, Demeester explains that his firm’s indicators now read “greed” after “capitulation”.
Then, the fund wrote that “should $9,000 prove [to be] the top”, which has seemingly occurred with Monday and Tuesday’s bull-scaring price action, a 2012-esque correction could be seen. This would result in Bitcoin trading in a range “between $6,800 and $7,680”, which is a 27% to 44% retrace of the upside rally.