Earlier today, NewsBTC reported that CryptoThies, a popular analyst, noted that the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) for Bitcoin was trending positive. The CMF, an oscillating indicator that is derived from the MACD to signal market strength, suggested that “smart money is just now flowing into the market and is trending upwards,” indicating that the cryptocurrency could begin to bounce and form a positive trend heading into 2020.
Though it seems that the close of the November monthly candle for Bitcoin has changed the state of the cryptocurrency market. In fact, the close of the November candle and open of the December candle, analysts say, imply that BTC will soon restart its medium-term downtrend, which could easily bring it back to the $6,000s, maybe even lower.
Harrowing Signals on Monthly Bitcoin Candle
Trader Byzantine General recently noted that the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), which is a “trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of a security’s price” (Investopedia), has printed a bearish crossover for the one-month BTC chart.
The last time this took place was in May of 2018, prior to Bitcoin’s extended bearish move from the $10,000s to the $3,000 in the seven-odd months that followed.
Notably, this MACD bearish crossover that just took place doesn’t have as much momentum as the previous one, implying that the likely decline that will follow may not be as deep and as extended as the one seen in 2018.
The monthly MACD on #bitcoin just had a bearish cross.
— Byzantine General (@ByzGeneral) December 1, 2019
That’s not all. The aforementioned analyst CryptoThies noted that his proprietary MarketGod indicator, which tracks trends much like the MACD, has printed a “sell” signal on the December candle for Bitcoin.
This is notable as previous “sell” signals on the monthly chart for BTC were seen near the $20,000 top last cycle and around $800 in the cycle before last. History repeating would mean that the cryptocurrency may have a few months of pain ahead.
Yikes. I’m taking the hint this time guys.. $BTC is done for a while. This squashes some bullish sentiment i was feeling yesterday ….the purpose and reason I built this tool was to eliminate my emotion in analysis and it’s pretty clear I need to listen to it.
Short the corn. pic.twitter.com/AiVLec0sUs
— CryptoThies 📈 (@KingThies) December 1, 2019
Not All Hope is Lost
While these signals are undoubtedly harrowing where you take historical events into account, Bitcoin bulls might not be done yet. The monthly candle for December has yet to close, giving bulls a chance to reverse the worrying technical signals laid out above in the coming four weeks.