Since topping at $10,500 last week, Bitcoin (BTC) has been in a relative state of calm, trading within a tight range between $9,000 and $9,500. Despite this consolidation above the 200-day moving average, which many analysts would call more bullish than bearish, some fear that the crypto market’s charts are flashing warning signs. They claim that a decline from here is likely.
Bitcoin Flashes Warning Signs
An analyst going by James recently drew attention to an array of reasons why it may be logical to be bearish on Bitcoin. He noted that BTC’s three-day Relative Strength Index remains in “bear market” territory, while the recent move higher was a textbook signal for a trend continuation. He added that there also exists two hidden bearish divergences on the one-day chart, implying a further breakdown.
A friend asked me today.. “Why are you so bearish brother?”
— James (@coinzada) November 1, 2019
Dave the Wave has corroborated this sentiment. He noted that the Histogram has begun to contract on the daily, while the one-day Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has started to roll over. This implies that the medium-term trend is “down.”
Histogram contracting on the daily, MACD rolling over, medium trend still down… but not for long. pic.twitter.com/cuIcsTvHVw
— dave the wave (@davthewave) November 1, 2019
Bull Case Slowly Building
While Bitcoin may soon be susceptible to a short-term drop, one that may bring it back to the $7,000 range, the case for a long-term bullish trend is starting to be realized yet again.
Filb’s chart depicts that after the last time the 50-week crossed above the 100-week, Bitcoin rallied for months straight, surging to fresh highs month in, month out. Historical precedence would suggest the same is about to happen… again.
Also, trader HornHairs has noted that he “likes the chance we hit $14,000 before $7,000.” But why, exactly, does the trader expect Bitcoin to surge higher by 55% from the current price of $9,200 over the alternative scenario of a collapse to $7,000.
Well, it has much to do with where Bitcoin has just bounced from and where it closed October. He remarked in a recent tweet that with Bitcoin bouncing strong and holding above the one-month bullish breaker, the 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement of the entire cycle, the Point of Control as defined by the volume profile, and the yearly pivot, BTC is leaning rather bullish.
$BTC Monthly confluence
+1M bullish breaker
+Volume Profile HVN/PoC
+Inside bar fakeout
I like the chances we hit $14,000 before $7,000. pic.twitter.com/0l1VlDAmA0
— HornHairs 🌊 (@CryptoHornHairs) October 31, 2019