On-chain metrics can offer valuable insights into Bitcoin market movements and the latest data is showing that unrealized losses are mounting up. This could lead to a larger selloff as those that bought the dip in late 2018 fear for loss of profits now.
Bitcoin Selloff Resumes
Following the weekend’s push to close in on $8k, there has been a slide of almost 8% as the king of crypto retreats for the seventh time since late June. The correction from this year’s peak is currently 48% and analysts are suggesting that it is not over yet.
Chances of a ‘Santa rally’ are dwindling as the asset looks set to dip into the $6k region again this week. There may well be no recovery until the halving approaches in six months’ time, and that may even take a while to gather momentum.
On-chain data has been used to analyze estimated cost basis and 45% of investors are currently in the red. CIO of Point-Slope Capital Chris Russi has been looking at the figures and they do not bode well.
“While it’s been quite a drawdown from the ~$13k top in June, I still expect slightly more pain to push that # closer to ≥50% until we trend up again.”
1/ According to latest on-chain data, 45% of investors possess an est. cost basis that’s “in the red” at current prices. While it’s been quite a drawdown from the ~$13k top in June, I still expect slightly more pain to push that # closer to ≥50% until we trend up again. pic.twitter.com/Gq8Hb0N3hA
— Chris Russi (@chrisrussi) December 3, 2019
A 50% figure would have a BTC price of around $6k which is where a number of technical analysts expect it to go. Mid-$5ks could also be possible as that is where the asset held for a month before initiating its huge rally up to $13,800.
Russi speculated that the largest capitulators have been those that bought the top. This was exactly what happened after the massive boom in early 2018, day traders dumping for fear of losing too much.
“Biggest capitulators during the draw down period have been top buyers @ ~$12K, recent dip buyers at ~$7.5K-$8K, and people locking in profits from catching the earlier bottom @ $3-$6k”
A scarier thought is another big selloff initiated by those that bought Bitcoin during the depths of crypto winter when it spent five months trading below $6k.
This would negate the premise that there has been more hodling occurring this time around and that institutional players have been stock piling the asset for product liquidity.
It stands to reason that anyone lucky enough to time the exact market bottom (which was just below $3,200 on December 15, 2018) would have been selling on the way up and would not have waited until now to offload.
A higher low is expected which would confirm that the long term trend is still intact and BTC is still heading upwards despite these massive peaks and toughs. If Bitcoin drops back into the $3k zone then the bear market that started almost two years ago is still not over.