$40M Bitcoin Auction Next Week May Cause a Bitcoin Flash Crash, Data Shows
The US Marshals Service is preparing to auction around 4,000 of seized BTC (+$40 million). Previous sales have coincided with an aggressive down wick on Bitcoin price charts.
The sale will take place on February 18. There may, therefore, be an opportunity coming up to get exposure to Bitcoin cheap next week, even if you didn’t register to take part in the auction itself.
Will US Marshals Auction Prompt Another Bitcoin Dump?
Highlighting the sudden market crashes coinciding with the US Marshals’s prior auctions is Twitter user Trade or Die (@TradeorDie31). On the below chart, they demonstrate three other instances that saw a violent down wick.
The first two are January 11 and January 22. The government agency auctioned more than 3,813 Bitcoin in a sale that took place across the two dates.
The next is March 19 2018. On this occasion, the US Marshals auctioned 2,170 Bitcoin.
US Auction 4000 #BTC On Feb 18th, 2020. Every time the US has come out with an auction, they’ve got the market to wick down and slam it up a few 100 Points. Gear up for the dips, it’s just an opportunity to buy. Idea Generator : @SalsaTekila Mark the date pic.twitter.com/00rIHBbbIi
— Trade or Die (@TradeorDie31) February 12, 2020
The agency will hold another auction on February 18. It will sell a series of four different sized lots of Bitcoin. Five lots of 500 BTC are available, as well as 10 lots of 50 and 100 BTC. Buyers can also pick up the remaining 40.54069820 as part of a 26th lot.
According to a post to the US Marshals website, the agency seized the BTC from a substantial number of federal, civil, and administrative cases. To stand a chance of picking up some of the BTC at auction, you must have already registered for the sale.
Will the Auction Create Another Great BTC Buying Opportunity?
With the auction demanding attendees pay a $200,000 deposit and the market value of the smallest lot being more than double that figure, US Marshals don’t just let anyone buy their seized Bitcoin. To give you an idea of the kind of clientele likely in attendance, billionaire tech investor Tim Draper picked a sizeable chunk of his own Bitcoin position up from an early auction in 2014.
That said, you may still be able to take advantage of the sale without even being there, if past price action repeats. As Trade or Die comments, the market may well create a great entry point next Tuesday:
“Gear up for the dips, it’s just an opportunity to buy.”
Although the flash crash phenomena does not line up with every US Marshals sale of Bitcoin (the agency has auctioned BTC since at least 2014 and made additional sales more recently than documented on the above chart), a few tactically placed buying orders could well yield some rapid returns indeed.